Intermarket Indicators

7-Market Regime Detection System

Last updated: 4/3/2026, 8:48:18 PM

Current Market Regime

Transitional low confidence

Transitional regime. Dollar: Strong Dollar

Regime Classification

  • Bull Quiet: Risk-on environment with low volatility and rising equities
  • Bull Volatile: Rising equities but elevated volatility signals uncertainty
  • Bear Quiet: Declining equities with rising bonds (orderly decline)
  • Bear Volatile: Risk-off with high VIX and flight to safety
  • Transitional: Mixed signals, regime change in progress

Individual Indicators

Risk Sentiment

Neutral

Neutral risk environment

SPY Trend: downtrend
SPY Price: $655.83
VIX Level: 23.9 (elevated)
VIX Trend: neutral

How it works: Combines equity momentum (SPY) with volatility (VIX) to gauge market risk appetite. High VIX + falling SPY = Risk-off. Low VIX + rising SPY = Risk-on.

Dollar Strength

Strong Dollar

Dollar strengthening: Headwind for commodities and international assets

UUP Price: $27.86
Trend: strong_uptrend
20-Day Momentum: +1.38%

How it works: Tracks UUP (US Dollar Index ETF). Strong dollar typically negative for commodities (priced in USD) and international stocks.

Real Rates

Stable Rates

Rates stable: Neutral environment

TLT Price: $86.79
Trend: uptrend
20-Day Momentum: -1.86%

How it works: TLT (20+ Year Treasury) price inversely related to yields. Rising TLT = Falling rates = Good for growth stocks. Falling TLT = Rising rates = Good for value/financials.

Commodity Strength

Mixed

Mixed commodity signals: Sector-specific factors at play

Gold (GLD): $429.41 (downtrend)
Silver (SLV): $65.79 (downtrend)
Energy (XLE): $59.25 (strong_uptrend)

How it works: Different commodities signal different regimes. Gold leading = defensive/inflation concerns. Energy/silver leading = risk-on/economic growth.

Why Intermarket Analysis?

Uncorrelated Signals

Using 7 different asset classes provides confirmation. If multiple uncorrelated signals align, it's likely a real regime change, not noise.

Less Crowded Trades

Single-asset technical indicators (RSI, MACD) are widely used and saturated. Intermarket relationships are less common among retail traders.

Leading Indicators

Intermarket relationships often lead equity moves. Dollar strength can predict commodity weakness. Bond strength can predict equity risk-off.

Regime Context

Understanding which regime you're in helps all strategies. Risk-on favors growth/cyclicals. Risk-off favors defensives/quality.

The 7 Markets